A CNBC-TV18 poll on home-buying in 2024 has revealed that real estate developers expect the housing bull run to continue in the New Year. Nearly 40% of developers polled said they expect their sales volumes to rise by 10 to 15% this year, with 30% of the responses from developers projecting a more ambitious rise of 15 to 20% in sales volumes.
An overwhelming number of developers (75%) polled said that they expect the mid-range segment — homes priced between ₹45 lakh and ₹2 crore — to outperform its peers in 2024. 20% of the developers participating in the poll said the premium and luxury segments — homes priced between ₹2 crore and ₹10 crore, and homes priced beyond ₹10 crore — would stand out this year.
“There is a strong expectation that luxury living will reach new heights, especially among residents of Mumbai,” said Aakash Patel, Director at Atul Projects India. “The prevailing trend towards luxury homes and penthouse living is expected to continue and potentially intensify further as the city’s well-heeled individuals seek even more opulent and exclusive residential experiences.”
Given the general bullishness in residential real estate, most developers (60% of responses polled) expect average weighted prices of residential units to increase between 5% and 10%, while 25% of responses to the CNBC-TV18 poll said price movement would be difficult to predict this year.
“Owing to positive market sentiments, the average price will appreciate by 5% to 10%,” said Darshan Govindaraju, Director at Vaishnavi Group. “The primary reason for this (positive sentiment) is the changing changing aspirations of the homebuyer, and the increasing desire to own a home. Besides, the uptick in rental in top cities, is another reason why people will prefer buying a property.”
In fact the ‘homebuyer’ label, 35% of developers participating in the poll, said would be the one compelling factor that would drive homebuying this year. An equally significant 30% of participants in the poll said capital gains from the 2023 equity market bull run would be another factor powering homebuying in 2024. However, there is one potential deal-breaker.
“While 2024 holds a lot of potential, developers will be cautious about factors like high-lending rates and immoral locations while launching a project,” Darshan added. Incidentally, 75% of developers polled said high lending rates would be a major deal-breaker to homebuying in the New Year, signaling that the RBI’s much-awaited repo-rate cuts could play a significant role in how well the residential market performs this year.
“We expect strong sales momentum to continue in 2024 even as home loan rates are also expected to reduce, which in turn makes buying a bit more affordable,” said Praveer Shrivastava, Senior VP (Residential) at the Prestige Group, “This will be crucial, considering that prices have strengthened considerably in the last couple of years across all cities.”
CNBC-TV18 macro poll: Home-buying in 2024
1) What do you expect home sales growth to be in 2024?
A) 10% to 15% ~40%
B) 15% to 20% ~30%
C) 20% to 25% ~25%
D) Flat growth ~5%
2) Which product segment do you expect to outperform in 2024?
A) Mid-range: ₹45 lakh to ₹2 crore ~75%
B) Affordable: upto ₹45 lakh ~5%
C) Premium: > ₹2 crore ~15%
D) Luxury: > ₹10 crore ~5%
3) In 2024, you expect average price-per-sqft to…
A) Appreciate by 5-10% ~60%
B) Depreciate by 5-10% ~0%
C) Stay the same ~15%
D) Difficult to predict ~25%
4) What will be the one compelling factor to spur home-buying in 2024?
A) Status of ownership ~35%
B) Expensive home rent ~20%
C) Equity gains ~30%
D) Repo-rate cuts ~15%
5) A major deal-breaker for buyers in 2024 would be…
A) Steep ticket price ~15%
B) Small unit size ~0%
C) High lending rate ~75%
D) Bad location ~10%